The most likely scenario is you going forward and then falling off the boat. It has happened here, and we lost a sailor.

The important question: Do you "hook on" when you go forward? A safety harness (or a vest with D rings) and a proper tether should be used. Clip onto the handrails, shrouds and the whisker pole ring on the mast. Reverse on returning to the cockpit.

Better yet, do as Scott Galloway has done and install jack lines from the cockpit to the foredeck. Clip on as you leave the cockpit and you are good up and back. Because Scott is a solo sailor, he clips on religiously. Cheap insurance considering the alternative.